Not content with his lacklustre 2009 predictions, analyst Michael Pachter has claimed that 2010′s projected software sales strength will see talk of the current console cycle ‘stifled’.
Pachter, co-writing this article with Edward Woo and Chris White, believes the start of the year will see big sales:
‘We think that it is likely that sales will begin to grow in February, hit high single digits in March, and hit double-digit growth from April through October.’
He continued:
‘Once sales begin to grow sustainably, chatter of an end to the current console cycle will likely be stifled, and we expect investors to again grow interested in the video game publisher stocks.’
Pachter had already talked of how the next generation of consoles were as far away as 2013, but it’s probable that he’s not so sure now after 2009 fell way below his predictions if you note his usage of ‘likely’.
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he predicted x35- with 500gb hdd for 2008… so gimme a break with this idiot
why do ppl keep relying on this patcher guys predictions for website hits. he’s almost never right. all i ever see anymore is “patcher thinks” “patcher predicts” please move on. hiphopgamer has more cred than this guy but yet no one quotes him lol. hiphopgamer actually gets inside the industry gets interviews with the industry instead of looking at numbers and blah blah
@ Junkins
Dont compare Patcher to HipHopGamer.
Microsoft contracted IBM’s East Fishkill plant to have production space starting late first quarter 2011. So the next console from ms should be fall 2011.
i actually like hiphopgamer, and patcher, he’s mostly wrong !
LOL, here’s my prediction. Microsoft goes bankrupt from Xbox 360 because it’s crap and has no exclusives. Alan Wake and Halo: Reach won’t even sell 1 million because no 360 exclusive has EVER done that so far. Hannah Montanna 2 will be announced and will be GOTY for 2010 because it’s so much more quality than anything on the crapbox 360. 360 sucks so bad it blows up when you just look at it, Wii FTW!!!
Why do you even care what this guy predicts.
2 weeks ago he predicted the ps3 would outsell the 360 in November.
The figures came in and he was, as he always is, wrong!
If you took this tools predictions over the last year and predicted the exact opposite of what he was predicting you would be known as the most accurate predictor in the world.
In fact I predict his next 10 predictions will be wrong!
I really dread to think what other services he provides for his bosses to keep his job. Apart from giving them free PS3s from his not so top secret sponsor!
All sales rankings are sponsored by Microsoft because 360 is so crap. Microsoft gave away 300,000 360′s to their friends and family during last month and counted them as units sold to desperately try and beat PS3.
They sure are getting desperate.
@ Jeremy,
Great job with that joke. ODST, Halo Wars, Forza 2 and many have sold over 1 million copies.
While I know that we’re all still eagerly awaiting that Wii HD that Pachter predicted, this claim isn’t that far-fetched. A few industry analysts have claimed something similar to this, and based on a few factors, like DLC and Microsoft and Sony developing motion controllers, it’s not completely unbelievable
@ Mitch
Both Microsoft and Sony are developing motion controllers because they’re both desperate to beat Nintendo, so what’s your point? The PS3 had its best year yet while the 360 didn’t have the great of one due to it’s lack of 2009 exclusives (mostly in the Fall though), so the PS3 caught up tremendously to Xbox 360, but it’s still 39 million to 32 million, and most multiplatform games still sell better on 360. However, the Wii has sold around 60 million, so Nintendo is the only non-desperate one here, and I’m saying that even though I own both a 360 and a PS3
And now, in contrast to my above post:
@ Jeremy – I’m only doing this because how ridiculous your comment sounded, so I therefore have to actually argue with you. I own a 360 and PS3, but I don’t hate the Wii, and like some Wii-exclusive games, many of which I regard highly. I was also a Nintendo-only gamer for a long time and respect them as a company as well. Point being: I’m not a fanboy. But I need to address your little “joke” just because, since you seemed completely serious when you typed it, you expect it to be taken seriously, right? Well then allow me to counter
First of all, I refer you to this URL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Xbox_360_video_games
The sales figures for non-exclusive games are their sales on 360 only, so including the 360 exclusives, that’s 30 games or so that have sold 1 million or more on 360. And a Halo game only selling 1 million copies at this point is laughable. Alan Wake is one thing, but Halo games sell like hotcakes. Halo Wars sold 1 million copies, so I’m pretty sure Halo: Reach will sell many more than that. And sales numbers aren’t in any way related to quality, as some of the best games sell like crap. In fact, games that are far below the title of “One of the best games of all time” can be some of the best selling games of all time. Super Mario Galaxy is a fantastic game and one of the best games on the Wii, let alone in general, yet it sold a third as much as Wii Play, which is not even close to being in the same league as Mario games, let alone many, many other games that have sold even less than either title but are better than both of them
As for non-exclusives, the 360 had less this year than they have had in the past, and they have had MANY in the past that are of outstanding quality, but the ones they had this year sold very well. And of the 2009 Wii exclusives that were good (like Madworld) and weren’t crappy shovel-ware, how many did you buy? If your answer is “none”, you’re not alone. And out of the best selling Wii exclusives, I could probably count on two hands all the ones that you’d want to play. And since the majority of games that release on the 360 and PS3 actually can’t be released on the Wii without reducing their quality because of the technical limitations, so you could probably count those too as exclusives, or 360 games not on the Wii at least. And while there are several 360 exclusives in 2010, the multitude of multiplatform titles is why we don’t need them
Also, you do realize that Microsoft is a mega-corporation who wouldn’t even go close to broke if the 360 failed, the same way as Sony wouldn’t go broke if the PS3 failed. Speaking of which, let’s hypothetically say that your right (which you aren’t) and the 360 is discontinued. Then all the multiplatform games coming out on 360 and PS3, like the good versions of the Call of Duty games, and all the DLC for those games would only be on PS3. Maybe some of the 360 exclusives that were in development would even be remade for PS3. So with a unified hard core market, one-console support third-party games and DLC, and great exclusives of its own already, the PS3 would then absolutely destroy the Wii. So it’s actually a good thing for the Wii that neither the 360 nor the PS3 will fail. And also, good job saying that Hannah Montana 2 would win GOTY 2010 in your scenario, realistically or not. Not even considering all the 360, PS3, or multiplatform games on those consoles that could probably win GOTY, you also neglected to consider all the great Wii exclusives that are coming out in 2010 that will probably have an excellent shot at GOTY as well. So good job owning your own console in your own scenario, and I didn’t even mention PC
Seriously, if you’re going to troll, at least do it somewhat intelligently. If you are going to joke about something so ridiculous, I will take you seriously and actually argue with you, and own you in this case. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to wonder as to how I got to be so bored, that I actually wasted my time with this